A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques

Pierre-Noël Giraud ()
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Pierre-Noël Giraud: CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.

Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-hpe
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://minesparis-psl.hal.science/hal-00582825v2
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Published in 2011

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00582825

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