The predictive role of counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio (), Itzhak Gilboa and Larry Samuelson
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Larry Samuelson: Department of Economics - Yale University [New Haven]

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Abstract: We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

Keywords: induction; counterfactuals; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-his
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hec.hal.science/hal-00712888v1
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Published in Theory and Decision, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. ⟨10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: The predictive role of counterfactuals (2013)
Working Paper: The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00712888

DOI: 10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6

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