Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies

Minh Ha-Duong and V. Journé
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V. Journé: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Keywords: nuclear; accidents (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-his
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Published in Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, 34 (2), pp.249-258. ⟨10.1007/s10669-014-9499-0⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01018478

DOI: 10.1007/s10669-014-9499-0

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