Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

Sandrine Mathy, Meike Fink and Ruben Bibas ()
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Meike Fink: Réseau Action Climat
Ruben Bibas: CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies.

Keywords: stakeholder; process-oriented scenario; climate policy; acceptability; France; policy design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cdm, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01086501v1
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Published in Energy Policy, 2015, 77, pp.176-190. ⟨10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.002⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01086501

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.002

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