Do Bets Reveal Beliefs?

Jean Baccelli
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Jean Baccelli: THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IHPST - Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - DEC - Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper examines the preference-based approach to the identification of beliefs. It focuses on the main problem to which this approach is exposed, namely that of state-dependent utility. First, the problem is illustrated in full detail. Four types of state-dependent utility issues are distinguished. Second, a comprehensive strategy for identifying beliefs under state-dependent utility is presented and discussed. For the problem to be solved following this strategy, however, preferences need to extend beyond choices. We claim that this a necessary feature of any complete solution to the problem of state-dependent utility. We also argue that this is the main conceptual lesson to draw from it. We show that this lesson is of interest to both economists and philosophers.

Keywords: Hypothetical preferences; State-dependent utility; Beliefs; Subjective probability; Revealed preference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01462293v1
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Published in Synthese, 2015, ⟨10.1007/s11229-015-0939-2⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01462293

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-015-0939-2

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