Decision design and re-ordering preferences: the case of an exploration project in a large firm

Mario Le Glatin (), Pascal Le Masson () and Benoit Weil ()
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Mario Le Glatin: CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Pascal Le Masson: CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Benoit Weil: CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Decision theory has been long applied to project management for risk and uncertainty reduction. Among the foundations, the manager is considered following axioms describing his rationality the most prominent ones being transitivity and independence. The order in preferences is not supposed be reversed yet unknowns events of nature, seen as exogenous, may perturb our understanding of the given situation and may require designing new decisions going against decision theories, hence increasing uncertainty. In this paper we show that in an innovation project management, traditional decision making is not able to grasp expansion and generativity phenomena as a manager senses the unknown and endogenises it. To highlight this phenomenon we use Bayesian Nets with Wald's foundations to sense the reordering preferences in an industrial case and the benefits of designing one's playground and being intransitive. The purpose to contribute to the idea theories studying generative processes (design theory) by opposition to optimisation (decision theory) can help extend the underlying logics of innovation management and untangle the tipping point, the necessity to explore/exploit.

Keywords: Design Decisions; Design theory; Decision making; Project management; Design management; Théorie de la conception; Décision Bayésienne (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-08-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-ppm and nep-upt
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01529620v2
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in International Conference on Engineering Design, University of British Columbia, Aug 2017, Vancouver, Canada

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