Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

Hélène Benveniste (helene.benveniste@ipsl.jussieu.fr), Olivier Boucher (olivier.boucher@lmd.jussieu.fr), Céline Guivarch, Hervé Le Treut and Patrick Criqui (patrick.criqui@univ-grenoble-alpes.fr)
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Hélène Benveniste: IPSL (FR_636) - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Olivier Boucher: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Hervé Le Treut: UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6
Patrick Criqui: GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019]

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Abstract: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before and after the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21), summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for NDCs format, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8 to 66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming "climate regime": a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-ppm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (1), pp.1-10. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01662799

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9

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