Synchronization of world economic activity

Andreas Groth () and Michael Ghil
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Andreas Groth: IGPP - Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] - UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California
Michael Ghil: ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres

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Abstract: Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era.

Keywords: Spectral Analysis; Synchronization; Business Cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01701086v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2017, 27 (12), ⟨10.1063/1.5001820⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01701086

DOI: 10.1063/1.5001820

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