Lapse tables for lapse risk management in insurance: a competing risk approach

Xavier Milhaud () and Christophe Dutang ()
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Xavier Milhaud: LSAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon
Christophe Dutang: LMM - Laboratoire Manceau de Mathématiques - UM - Le Mans Université

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Abstract: This paper deals with the crucial problem of modeling policyholders' behaviours in life insurance. We focus here on the surrender behaviours and model the contract lifetime through the use of survival regression models. Standard models fail at giving acceptable forecasts for the timing of surrenders because of too much heterogeneity, whereas the competing risk framework provides interesting insights and more accurate predictions. Numerical results follow from using Fine & Gray model ([13]) on an insurance portfolio embedding Whole Life contracts. Through backtests, this framework reveals to be quite efficient and recovers the empirical lapse rate trajectory by aggregating individual predicted lifetimes. These results could be particularly useful to design future insurance product. Moreover, this setting allows to calibrate experimental lapse tables, simplifying the lapse risk management for operational teams.

Date: 2018-03-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias and nep-rmg
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01985256v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published in European Actuarial Journal, 2018, 8 (1), pp.97-126. ⟨10.1007/s13385-018-0165-7⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01985256

DOI: 10.1007/s13385-018-0165-7

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