Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices

Salaheddine Soummane (), F. Ghersi () and Franck Lecocq ()
Additional contact information
Salaheddine Soummane: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
F. Ghersi: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMACLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energypricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy.

Keywords: Economic diversification; General equilibrium; Oil-exporting country; Climate policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-isf
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03319116v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Energy Journal, 2022, 43 (3), pp.181-200. ⟨10.5547/01956574.43.3.ssou⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-03319116v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices (2022)
Journal Article: Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319116

DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.ssou

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().