A Bioeconomic Projection of Climate‐Induced Wildfire Risk in the Forest Sector

Miguel Riviere (), F. Pimont (), Philippe Delacote, Sylvain Caurla (), J. Ruffault (), Antonello Lobianco, Thomas Opitz and Jean-Luc Dupuy ()
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Miguel Riviere: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris-Saclay
F. Pimont: URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Sylvain Caurla: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - Institut Louis Bachelier
J. Ruffault: URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Thomas Opitz: BioSP - Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Jean-Luc Dupuy: URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Under the influence of climate change, wildfire regimes are expected to intensify and expand to new areas, increasing threats to natural and socioeconomic assets. We explore the environmental and economic implications for the forest sector of climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes. To retain genericity while considering local determinants, we focus on the regional level and take Mediterranean France as an example. Coupling a bioeconomic forest sector model and a model of wildfire activity, we perform spatially explicit simulations under various levels of radiative forcing. By using a probabilistic framework, we also assess the propagation of several sources of uncertainty to the forest sector, considering both climate-induced uncertainty and the intrinsic stochasticity of the fire process. By the end of the century, summer burned areas increase by up to 55%, causing moderate losses of merchantable timber and forest carbon stocks, with cascading impacts for industrial activities and climate mitigation in the forest sector. Implications for industries remain limited, but we observe price increases, especially for softwoods, as well as spatially differentiated changes in producer welfare. Inter-annual fluctuations explain most of uncertainty in wildfire activity, but their impacts on the forest sector are quickly dampened. Over time, owing to the cumulative nature of wildfire impacts on forest resources, uncertainty related to climate warming, climate models' response and stochasticity intrinsic to the wildfire phenomenon strongly increase in relative importance. Results reassert the need to consider multiple futures in prospective assessments, including uncertainty inherent to natural processes, often omitted in large-scale economic assessments.mainte

Keywords: Forest fire; Integrated model; Climate change; Uncertainty; Firelihood; Forest sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://agroparistech.hal.science/hal-03655411v1
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Published in Earth's Future, 2022, 10 (4), pp.e2021EF002433. ⟨10.1029/2021EF002433⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03655411

DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002433

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