Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data

Hugo Le Boulzec (), Louis Delannoy (), Baptiste Andrieu, François Verzier, Olivier Vidal and Sandrine Mathy
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Hugo Le Boulzec: GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre - Institut des Sciences de la Terre - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Louis Delannoy: STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Baptiste Andrieu: ISTerre - Institut des Sciences de la Terre - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, The Shift Project. Redesigning the economy to achieve carbon transition
François Verzier: ISTerre - Institut des Sciences de la Terre - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Olivier Vidal: ISTerre - Institut des Sciences de la Terre - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes

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Abstract: The low-carbon energy transition requires a widespread change in global energy infrastructures which in turn calls for important inputs of energy and materials. While the transport and electricity sectors have been thoroughly analyzed in this regard, that of the hydrocarbon industry has not received the same attention, maybe in part due to the difficulty of access to the necessary data. To fill this gap, we assemble public-domain data from a wide variety of sources to present a stock-flow dynamic model of the fossil fuels supply chain. It is conducted from 1950 to 2050 and along scenarios from the International Energy Agency. We estimate the concrete, steel, aluminum and copper requirements for each segment, as well as the embedded energy and CO2 emissions through a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model. We find that (i) the material intensities of oil, gas and coal supply chains have stagnated for more than 30 years; (ii) gas is the main driver of current and future material consumption; and (iii) recycled steel from decommissioned fossil fuels infrastructures could meet the cumulative need of future low-carbon technologies and reduce its energy and environmental toll. Furthermore, we highlight that regional decommissioning strategies significantly affect the potential of material recycling and reuse. In this context, ambitious decommissioning strategies could drive a symbolic move to build future renewable technologies from past fossil fuel structures.

Keywords: Fossil fuels; Energy transition; Materials requirements; Embedded energy; Embedded CO2 emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03780879v1
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Published in Applied Energy, 2022, 326, ⟨10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119871⟩

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Journal Article: Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03780879

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119871

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