Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Chantal Le Mouël, Agneta Forslund (), Pauline Marty (), Stéphane Manceron (), Elodie Marajo-Petitzon (), Marc-Antoine Caillaud (), Patrice Dumas () and Bertrand Schmitt ()
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Agneta Forslund: SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement
Pauline Marty: InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes
Stéphane Manceron: DEPE - Direction de l'Expertise scientifique collective, de la Prospective et des Etudes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Elodie Marajo-Petitzon: SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement
Marc-Antoine Caillaud: DEPE - Direction de l'Expertise scientifique collective, de la Prospective et des Etudes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Patrice Dumas: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Bertrand Schmitt: CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement

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Abstract: The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region's natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA's food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.

Keywords: Food system; Agricultural production; Food diet; MENA; Scenarios; Biomass balance model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ara, nep-env and nep-int
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04142046v1
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Published in Regional Environmental Change, 2023, 23 (2), pp.52. ⟨10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04142046

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y

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