The "real" exchange rate regime in China since 2015's exchange rate reform

Jinzhao Chen

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Abstract: Moving away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005, China has gradually enlarged the band of fluctuations of Renminbi (RMB) and implemented various reforms on its central parity to have a more flexible exchange rate regime. This paper studies the nature of the exchange rate regime in China since the exchange regime reform of August 2015. Relying on the selfexciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model, it identifies endogenously the band of inaction beyond which the People's bank of China (China's central bank) starts to intervene in the foreign exchange market to restrict further fluctuations. Based on the comparison of the estimated threshold with the official band, this paper shows that the RMB/USD exchange rate followed an intermediate regime similar to the crawling band but with only one single threshold of intervention which is much lower than the upper boundary of the announced band.

Keywords: Exchange rate regime; self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR); Renminbi (RMB); Central bank intervention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cna, nep-mon and nep-opm
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04402467
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Published in Asia and the Global Economy, 2023, 3 (2), pp.100064

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04402467

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