Robust Viable Analysis of an Ecosystem Model

Esther Regnier (estherregnier@hotmail.fr) and Michel de Lara (michel.delara@enpc.fr)
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Esther Regnier: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Michel de Lara: CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées

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Abstract: The World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002) encouraged the adoption of an ecosystem approach. In this perspective, we propose a theoretical management framework that deals jointly with three issues: i) ecosystem dynamics, ii) conflicting issues of production and preservation and iii) robustness with respect to dynamics uncertainties. We consider a discrete-time two-species dynamic model, where states are biomasses, and where two controls act as harvesting efforts of each species. Uncertainties take the form of disturbance affecting each species growth factors, and are assumed to take their values in a known given set. We define the robust viability kernel as the set of initial species biomasses such that at least one harvesting strategy guarantees minimal production and preservation levels for all times, whatever the uncertainties. We apply our approach to the anchovy-hake couple in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem. We find that accounting for uncertainty sensibly shrinks the deterministic viability kernel (without uncertainties). We comment on the management implications of comparing robust viability kernels (with uncertainties) and the deterministic one (without uncertainties).

Keywords: Peruvian upwelling ecosystem; fisheries; sustainability; viability; uncertainty; robustness; incertitude; robustesse; durabilité; pêcheries; viabilité; écosystème de l'upwelling Péruvien (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Published in 2014

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