How impact evaluation methods influence the outcomes of development projects? Evidence from a meta-analysis on decentralized solar nano projects

Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé ()
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Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, I&P - Investisseurs et Partenaires

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Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of impact evaluation methodologies on the positive and negative outcomes of decentralized solar nano projects in developing countries. Data originate from the Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Actions (CoSMMA) developed by the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development (FERDI). This study is based on a total of 727 tested effects from 10 decentralized solar nano projects which have been measured by experimental and quasi-experimental approaches. Using a multinomial-logit regression shown that randomized and non-randomized evaluation methods have a similar probability of generating a proven favorable outcome on the sustainable development of decentralized solar nano projects. By estimating a complementary log-log model, projects are most often evaluated as successful when effects on education are tested. In addition, a discrepancy of impacts is found between randomized control trials and difference-indifference strategies in proven-unfavorable outcomes of projects. This analysis also highlights the convergence of impacts between randomization and matching techniques on projects implemented in Africa. Findings from this paper provide strong evidence for development practitioners to choose the appropriate impact assessment method.

Keywords: Sustainable development; Decentralized electrification; Meta-analysis; Impact evaluation; Experimental methods; Quasi-experimental methods; Randomized control trials; Matching; Difference-in-difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-ppm
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Published in 2022

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