Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework

Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson and David Schmeidler
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Larry Samuelson: Department of Economics - Yale University [New Haven]

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Abstract: We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rulebased reasoning. This uni ed framework allows us to examine how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change endogenously. For example, we establish conditions under which an agent who does not know the structure of the data generating process will decrease, over the course of her reasoning, the weight of credence put on Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian reasoning. We illustrate circumstances under which probabilistic models are used until an unexpected outcome occurs, whereupon the agent resorts to more basic reasoning techniques, such as case-based and rule-based reasoning, until enough data are gathered to formulate a new probabilistic model.

Keywords: dynamics; inductive inference; uni ed framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-06-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hec.hal.science/hal-00712823v1
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Published in 2012

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Related works:
Journal Article: Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework (2013)
Working Paper: Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework (2013)
Working Paper: Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework (2011)
Working Paper: Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework (2011)
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