Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics?

Séverine Arnold, Alexandre Boumezoued, Héloïse Labit Hardy () and Nicole El Karoui
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Séverine Arnold: UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne
Alexandre Boumezoued: LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Héloïse Labit Hardy: UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne
Nicole El Karoui: LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper analyses cause-of-death mortality changes and its impacts on the whole population evolution. The study combines cause-of-death analysis and population dynamics techniques. Our aim is to measure the impact of cause-of-death reduction on the whole population age structure, and more specifically on the depdendency ratio which is a crucial quantity for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Whereas previous studies on causes of death focused on mortality indicators such as survival curves or life expectancy, our approach provides additional information by including birth patterns. As an important conclusion, our numerical results based on French data show that populations with identical life expectancies can present important differences in their age pyramid resulting from different cause-specific mortality reductions. Sensitivities to fertility level and population flows are also given.

Keywords: Cause-of-Death Mortality; Population Dynamics; Birth and Death Process; Individual-Based Model; Age Pyramid; Age Dependency Ra-tio; Macroscopic Behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-05-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-hea
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