Modelling COVID-19 contagion: risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies

Rama Cont (), Artur Kotlicki and Renyuan Xu
Additional contact information
Rama Cont: LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, MI - Mathematical Institute [Oxford] - University of Oxford
Renyuan Xu: MI - Mathematical Institute [Oxford] - University of Oxford

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: We use a spatial epidemic model with demographic and geographic heterogeneity to study the regional dynamics of COVID-19 across 133 regions in England. Our model emphasises the role of variability of regional outcomes and hetero-geneity across age groups and geographic locations, and provides a framework for assessing the impact of policies targeted towards sub-populations or regions. We define a concept of efficiency for comparative analysis of epidemic control policies and show targeted mitigation policies based on local monitoring to be more efficient than country-level or non-targeted measures. In particular, our results emphasise the importance of shielding vulnerable subpopulations and show that targeted policies based on local monitoring can considerably lower fatality forecasts and, in many cases, prevent the emergence of second waves which may occur under centralised policies.

Keywords: metapopulation epidemic models; network model; compartmental models; SEIAR model; Nowcasting systems; Stochastic models; nowcasting 1; SARS-n-COV; COVID-19; nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-net
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02923033v3
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-02923033v3/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02923033

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().