Cliometrics of Climate Change

Olivier Damette, Claude Diebolt, Stéphane Goutte and Umberto Triacca
Additional contact information
Umberto Triacca: UNIVAQ - Università degli Studi dell'Aquila = University of L'Aquila = Université de L'Aquila

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: This paper presents the findings of climate change impact on a widespread human crisis due to a natural occurrence, focusing on the so-called Little Ice Age period. The study is based on new non-linear econometrics tools. First, we reassessed the existence of a significant cooling period using outliers and structural break tests and a nonlinear Markov Switching with Levy process (MS Levy) methodology. We found evidence of the existence of such a period between 1560-1660 and 1675-1700. In addition, we showed that NAO teleconnection was probably one of the causes of this climate change. We then performed nonlinear econometrics and causality tests to reassess the links between climate shock and macroeconomic indicators. While the causal relationship between temperature and agricultural output (yields, production, price) is strongly robust, the association between climate and GDP identified by the MS Levy model does not reveal a clear causality link. Although the MS Levy approach is not relevant in this case, the causality tests indicate that social disturbance might also have been triggered by climate change, confirming the view of Parker (2013). These findings should inform current public policies, especially with regard to the strong capacity of climate to disrupt social and economic stability.

Keywords: Economic cycles; Causality; Markov Switching Levy; Non-linear econometrics; Climate change; Little Ice Age; Social crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-his and nep-mac
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03215675v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03215675v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03215675

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().