Steady State Growth of Vietnam Economy

Ly Hung

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: The paper estimates the steady state economic growth rate of Vietnam, defined as the equilibirum that the economy converge without new shocks. The method employs a bayesian structural vector autoregressive model (BSVAR) which captures the Triffin policy trilemma at international financial integration. On a quarterly sample over Q2/2008-Q4/2019, the evidence records that the steady state growth based on Minnesota prior is 6.13%. This result is robust by normal-diffuse prior, normal-wishart prior and timely average method. For policy implication, the Vietnam government's objective of annual growth rate at 7.0% over 2021-2030 can only be attained for economic expansion periods.

Keywords: Economic Growth; Vector Autoregression; Vietnam Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-fdg, nep-mac, nep-sea and nep-tra
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