Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections

Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises

Antoine Auberger

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the result of the firstround vote of the French legislative elections and the results in seats after the second round per department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of a popularity rating between the Left and the Right; and the economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the GDP growth rate, the inflation rate with more ambiguous results) to account for the first-round vote for the Left in the French legislative elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1986-2007) are satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts in vote and seats for the 2012 French legislative elections. We make some preliminary ex ante forecast in vote and in seats for the 2017 French legislative election.

Keywords: vote functions; legislative elections; election forecasting; popularity functions; panel data JEL Classification: C23; C53; D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03480853v1
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