Modeling the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in Services on Intra-African Trade: Global Trade Analysis Project Model

Lukman Oyelami and Amara Zongo

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: In 2015, the African Union launched negotiations to establish an African free trade agreement named AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). This paper examines the effects of the AfCFTA on intra-African trade in the short and long term. Associated with the implementation of this trade agreement, this paper assesses the impact of a reduction of 90% in import tariffs and 50% in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for goods and services on GDP and intra-African trade. In this study, we highlighted the role of services in intra-African trade. We use the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP) and ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs in services calculated using the Services Trade Restrictiveness Indices (STRIs) from the World Bank database following the Australian Productivity Commission's methodology. Our results suggest that liberalization of services stimulates GDP growth in the long run. The reduction of NTBs in services leads to a rise in intra-African exports of agricultural products, manufactured goods, processed food, fuel, energy-intensive products, wood and paper products, textiles and clothing in the long run. The manufacturing and natural resources sectors are the most affected by the reduction of barriers to services trade in Africa. Moreover, this trade agreement creates both long-term trade creationand diversion.

Keywords: AfCFTA; Restrictions in Services; Trade in services; GTAP model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-int
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03775450
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-03775450/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Modeling the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in Services on Intra-African Trade: Global Trade Analysis Project Model (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03775450

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().