International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa

Thibault Lemaire and Paul Vertier

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02-2021m04. We consider 17 commodity prices separately to take into account both the heterogeneity in price variations and the cross-correlations between them, and to depart from aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in African countries. Using local projections in a panel dataset, we find a maximum passthrough of 24%, and a long-run pass-through of about 20%, higher than usually found in the literature. We also consider country-specific regressions to test whether estimated pass-through are related to countries' observable characteristics.

Keywords: Commodity prices; food prices; energy prices; inflation; pass-through; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-ene, nep-int, nep-mon and nep-opm
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Working Paper: International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa (2023)
Working Paper: International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa (2023)
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