A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]

Gilles Dufrénot (), Adelya Ospanova and Alain Sand-Zantman ()
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Adelya Ospanova: AMU - Aix Marseille Université
Alain Sand-Zantman: GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations : interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy in not ambiguous ; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy.

Keywords: Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Central Asian CIS countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-tra
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00926223v1
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