Entwicklung eines Modells zur Bevölkerungsprojektion - Modellrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis 2060

David Bowles and Andy Zuchandke

Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) from Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

Abstract: Population projections – especially those of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany – are often used for research questions that depend on the future size and structure of the population. Nevertheless, by using the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office the scope of analysis is limited to the provided dataset with little variation in underlying assumptions possible. Moreover, one does not have full information about the assumptions and methods used. This paper presents a self-developed population projection model and compares the results with the publicly available projections of the Federal Statistical Office. The results reflect a high level of similarity regarding the future size and structure of the German population; observed differences originate from varying assumptions. The developed projection model can be easily applied to different settings (e.g. healthcare, long-term care or education) and features the opportunity to analyze the impact of different components of population change on results in a more flexible way.

Keywords: Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung; Kohorten-Komponenten-Methode; Demografischer Wandel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2012-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
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