A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development

Jana Asher (asher@stataid.org) and Beth Osborne Daponte (beth.daponte@yale.edu)
Additional contact information
Jana Asher: Human Development Research Office (HDRO), StatAid
Beth Osborne Daponte: Human Development Research Office (HDRO), Yale University

No HDRP-2010-40, Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) from Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Abstract: This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.

Keywords: human development index; conflict; hypothetical cohorts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 F01 O10 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2010-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hap
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published as background research for the 2010 Human Development Report.

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-40

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