Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities

Guido Alfani and Marco Percoco

No 106, Working Papers from European Historical Economics Society (EHES)

Abstract: The paper aims to analyze the effects of plague on the long-term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629-30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 49 cities covering the period 1575-1700 ca., an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629-30 plague were permanently displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused a long-lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth-century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.

Keywords: Plague; Italian cities; Urban development; Urban demography; Multiple equilibria; Early modern period; Mortality crises; Urbanization; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 N30 N33 N93 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-hea, nep-his and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities (2019)
Working Paper: Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities (2014)
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