The Trade Effects of the Plague: The Saminiati and Guasconi Bank of Florence (1626-1634)

Robert Elliott (), Fabio Gatti and Eric Strobl
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Fabio Gatti: University of Bern
Eric Strobl: University of Bern & University of Birmingham

No 271, Working Papers from European Historical Economics Society (EHES)

Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of the 1630-1631 Italian plague on the business activities of the Florentine merchant-bank Saminiati & Guasconi. Employing AI for handwriting recognition on over 6,000 bank letters we show that letters and goods transactions decreased by two-thirds when a merchant lived in an infected town although this negative effect was halved when the correspondent also resided in an infected town. Mentions of precious coins however increased reflecting a flight to the safety of hard currency. The plague also shifted the bank’s merchant network towards Southern and Eastern Europe and away from the Atlantic Coast.

Keywords: merchants; plague; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N00 N73 N83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2024-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-fdg and nep-his
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hes:wpaper:0271

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