Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?

Kamil Kladivko () and Pär Österholm ()
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Kamil Kladivko: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden, https://www.oru.se/english/employee/kamil_kladivko
Pär Österholm: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden, https://www.oru.se/english/employee/par_osterholm

No 2020:11, Working Papers from Örebro University, School of Business

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate households’ directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The analysis is conducted using monthly forecasts from the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey that range from January 1996 until August 2019. Results indicate that households have statistically significant ability to forecast where the unem-ployment is headed, but they fail in predicting the direction of future inflation.

Keywords: Survey data; Directional forecasts; Inflation; Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2020-10-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_011

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