Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises

Christopher Baum, Margarita Karpava, Dorothea Schäfer and Andreas Stephan
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Margarita Karpava: MediaCom London, Postal: The Ratio Institute, P.O. Box 5095, SE-102 42 Stockholm, Sweden

No 224, Ratio Working Papers from The Ratio Institute

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011–2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade announcements negatively affected the value of the Euro currency and also increased its volatility. Downgrading increased the yields of French, Italian and Spanish bonds but lowered the German bond’s yields, although Germany’s rating status was never touched by CRA. There is no evidence for Granger causality from bond yields to rating announcements. We infer from these findings that CRA announcements ignificantly influenced crisis-time capital allocation in the Eurozone. Their downgradings caused investors to rebalance their portfolios across member countries, out of ailing states’ debt into more stable borrowers’ securities.

Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Euro Crisis; Sovereign Debt; Euro Exchange Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 E43 E44 F31 F42 F65 G01 G12 G14 G24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2013-11-04
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Working Paper: Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis (2013)
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