Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Jens Iversen, Stefan Laséen (), Henrik Lundvall and Ulf Söderström ()
Additional contact information
Jens Iversen: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden
Henrik Lundvall: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), Postal: Stockholm, Sweden
Ulf Söderström: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

No 318, Working Paper Series from Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract: We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

Keywords: Real-time forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2016-03-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0318

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