The Spot-Forward Relationship in the Atlantic Salmon Market

Frank Asche, Bård Misund and Atle Oglend

No 2015/16, UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance from University of Stavanger

Abstract: This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provide a price discovery function. Using data for 2006-2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1 to 6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provides a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.

Keywords: Atlantic salmon; futures prices; price discovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G13 G14 Q22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2015-12-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-mkt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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