A DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Shyam Ranganathan (), Ranjula Bali Swain and David Sumpter ()
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Shyam Ranganathan: Department of Mathematics, Postal: Uppsala University,
David Sumpter: Department of Mathematics, Postal: Uppsala University,

No 2014:9, Working Paper Series from Uppsala University, Department of Economics

Abstract: A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Human Development; dynamical systems; Bayesian; data-driven; GDP; child mortality; fertility rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 C53 C61 J13 O21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2014-10-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2014_009

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