Intensity and severity of ship conflicts: an AIS based approach

Gunnar Flötteröd (), Henrik Sjöstrand (), Filip Kristofersson () and Jonas Westin
Additional contact information
Gunnar Flötteröd: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden, https://www.vti.se/en/employees/employees/gunnar-flotterod
Henrik Sjöstrand: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden, https://www.vti.se/en/employees/employees/henrik-sjostrand
Filip Kristofersson: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden, https://www.vti.se/en/employees/employees/filip-kristofersson

No 2023:12, Working Papers from Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)

Abstract: There is a lack of standardized methods for socio-economic evaluations within the maritime transport sector. This paper presents a model for analysing and quantifying the intensity and severity of ship conflicts using AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and expert assessments. Also, a case study applying the proposed method to the Southern Gothenburg Archipelago is carried out. The goal is to contribute to cost-benefit analyses within the maritime transport sector by a better understanding of how different actions, such as the widening of fairways or new regulation, impact maritime safety. The importance of validating the model by comparing its results with independent sources of reported maritime accidents is emphasized, and the challenges of using existing accident statistics for this purpose is discussed. The basic model described in the paper can be built upon by differentiating parameters by region and vessel type, account for seasonality etc. Furthermore, a downstream consequence analysis model is needed to enable a monetary valuation of (the consequences of) identified conflicts. Finally, the same principles as laid out here for conflict analysis can also be adopted to the identification of groundings.

Keywords: Socio-economic evaluation; Cost-benefit analysis; Maritime safety; AIS; Ship conflicts; Geometric probability; Probabilistic risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C69 D61 R41 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2023-11-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tre
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