Conflict Experiences and Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

Carlos Bozzoli, Tilman Br�ck and Tony Muhumuza
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Tilman Br�ck: German Institute of Economic Research
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Tilman Brück

No 88, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-dev
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