Keynes, Boole and the interval approach to probability

Michael Emmett Brady () and Rogério Arthmar ()
Additional contact information
Michael Emmett Brady: California State University - Department of Operations Management

History of Economic Ideas, 2012, vol. 20, issue 3, 65-84

Abstract: This paper provides evidence on how Keynes devised a mathematical framework for his system of probability, which he called «approximation», in A Treatise on Probability, 1921. Keynes used standard conditional, mathematical probability to duplicate Boole’s results in the Challenge problem. He also showed how Boole’s approach would lead to the specification of interval estimates. It is also demonstrated that Keynes provided a solid mathematical structure for his nonlinear, non-additive decision theory. We suggest he should be recognized as the founder of the modern nonadditive, nonlinear approach to probability.

Date: 2012
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.libraweb.net/articoli.php?chiave=201206103&rivista=61
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hid:journl:v:20:y:2012:3:6:p:65-84

Access Statistics for this article

History of Economic Ideas is currently edited by Riccardo Faucci, Nicola Giocoli, Roberto Marchionatti

More articles in History of Economic Ideas from Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mario Aldo Cedrini ().