Macro Analysis and Forecast of Global Expansion of Electric Vehicles

Thakur Dhakal () and Kyoung-Soon Min ()
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Thakur Dhakal: Kangwon National University (South Korea)
Kyoung-Soon Min: Kangwon National University (South Korea)

Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), 2021, vol. 15, issue 1, 67-73

Abstract: This study analyzes the diffusion of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the world and evaluates the vehicle charging stations based on the European Union (EU) scenario. Initially, the global BEV sales data from 2005 to 2018 are fitted with the two most frequently used econometric logistics and Bass diffusion models. Further, the study identifies the different stage adopters, forecasts the consumption of BEVs, and examines the velocity and acceleration of BEV diffusion. Finally, future charging stations are examined to meet the BEV sales demand. Results suggest that the adoption of BEVs demonstrates a better fit on the Bass model where the global BEV market is estimated to grow from 5,3 millions in 2019 to near 40 millions units by 2030, and with the reference of the EU countries’ adoption scenario, the global charging stations will be increased from near 2 millions in 2019 to near 10 millions units by 2030.

Keywords: business; innovation; diffusion; potential market; electric vehicle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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