IMF Programs And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

Hippolyte Balima and Anna Sokolova

HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract: We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons, estimated using more recent data or obtained with the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers.

Keywords: IMF programs; Economic growth; Meta-Analysis; Bayesian Model Averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 F4 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa
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Published in WP BRP Series: Economics / EC, December 2020, pages 1-57

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Related works:
Journal Article: IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis (2021)
Working Paper: IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hig:wpaper:241/ec/2020

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