Russia’S Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios

Ozcan Saritas (), Liliana Proskuryakova and Sergey Sivaev
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Ozcan Saritas: National Research University Higher School of Economics

HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract: The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector

Keywords: water resources; sustainable water systems; water use; water goods and services; scenarios; Foresight; Russia. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H4 H5 H87 I30 M11 Q01 Q02 Q15 Q18 Q22 Q25 Q26 Q27 Q53 Q54 Q55 R20 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-env and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, July 2015, pages 1-32

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