INFORMATION CONTENT OF THE RUSSIAN SERVICES SURVEYS

Liudmila Kitrar (), Tamara Lipkind () and Georgy Ostapkovich ()
Additional contact information
Georgy Ostapkovich: National Research University Higher School of Economics

HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract: The paper explores the information content of surveys of the Russian services sector using the surveys’ results since 2012Q1 to 2018Q4. To summarise entrepreneurial opinions in a one-dimensional index the indicators of confidence and business climate are calculated. To examine the reaction of GDP to impulses in the business climate indicator and to forecast GDP growth by the end of 2019, the Vector Autoregression Model was used. The results of services surveys provide reliable information on the economic sentiment that is essential to measure recession and recovery development of the sector. Since 2013, the survey’s results demonstrate a stable five-year trend of ‘pessimism accumulation’ in the indicators dynamics. The slight increase in entrepreneurial optimism in 2016-2018 did not result in moving confidence to a positive zone. The business climate indicator (BCI) performs better than the traditional confidence indicator in terms of synchronous correlations with GDP growth. A longer observation period needs to draw conclusions about the BCI cyclic properties; however, it can be used now to analyze the development of the Russian services sector.

Keywords: services surveys; confidence indicator; business climate indicator; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 C82 L89 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, January 2019, pages 1-20

Downloads: (external link)
https://wp.hse.ru/data/2019/01/18/1148372950/93STI2019.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Information Content of Russian Services Surveys (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hig:wpaper:93sti2019

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Shamil Abdulaev () and Shamil Abdulaev ().