所得階層別一般均衡型世代重複シミュレーションモデルの開発, On the newly developed overlapping generation model with heterogeneous households: its structure, properties, and policy simulations

諭 島澤, Manabu Shimasawa, 了一 難波, Ryoichi Nanba, 雅彦 堤, Masahiko Tsutsumi, 一正 小黒 and Kazumasa Oguro

No 669, CIS Discussion paper series from Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: 本稿の目的は、財政健全化や社会保障制度改革等の政策変更により家計が被る影響が、世代間のみならず世代内でどのような点で異なり、どのような点で類似しているのかなどについて分析を行うために資するよう、家計を生年だけではなく所得階層に区分し、同一世代内における家計の異質性を明示的に考慮した一般均衡型世代重複シミュレーションモデルの開発を行うことにある。あわせて、現在の財政スタンスが持続可能か否かについてシミュレーションし、世代別・所得階層別生涯純税負担率の推計を行った。その結果、現在の財政スタンスを継続した場合、2040年に政府債務残高比率が457％に達したところで限界が訪れ、2041年には消費税率の抜本的な引上げが必要になること、また、政府債務残高比率を457％に維持するだけにしても、現在の歳出構造が続くならば、長期的に30％の消費税率が必要なこと、さらに、世代別では高齢層ほど、世代内では所得階層の低いほど、生涯純税負担率が小さいことが明らかになった。, This paper primarily aims at explaining the structure and properties of the newly developed overlapping generation model with four types of households grouped by income levels based on the latest Japanese data. Along with detailed account of the model structure and data, the sensitivity analysis on the key parameters, which are not fully supported by empirical studies, are conducted. Regarding policy simulations, we examine the fiscal sustainability of Japan under the current levels of debt and fiscal policy. Key findings are as follows. First, the financial collapse defined as a convergence limit, appears in 2040 when the debt-GDP ratio reaches 457%, implying that a significant tax hike is required to sustain the economy. Second, 30% of the consumption tax rate is necessary to restrain levels of the debt-GDP ratio from exceeding 457%, if the current structure of government spending lasts in the long run. Third, the lifetime net tax burden rate varies among households. The rate tends to be higher as they are born later (younger), and as they are richer.

Keywords: 少子高齢化; 財政再建; 消費税; シミュレーション分析; population aging; fiscal sustainability; consumption tax; simulation analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C68 E62 H30 H61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2018-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-dge and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:cisdps:669

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