Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function

Chi Heem Wong and Albert Tsui

No 2015-1, CEI Working Paper Series from Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: We propose a new survival function to forecast life expectancies at various ages. The proposed model comprises the youth-to-adulthood component and the old-to-oldest-old component. It is able to closely fit adult survivorship of the US men and women in the period from 1950 to 2010. We find evidence that the forecasting performance of life expectancies by the proposed model compares favorably with those obtained from the popular Lee-Carter model (1992) and the shifting logistic model proposed by Bongaarts (2005).

Keywords: Lee-Carter model; Life expectancy; Mortality; Survival probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-for and nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:hitcei:2015-1

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