International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles

Wataru Miyamoto and Thuy Lan Nguyen

No 2018-16, CEI Working Paper Series from Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: We quantify the effects of changes in international input-output linkages on the nature of business cycles. We build a multi-sector multi-country international business cycle model that matches the input-output structure within and across countries. We find that, in our 23 countries sample with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, changes in the international input-output linkages between 1970 and 2007 causes a 15% drop in output volatility in a median country, but the effects are heterogeneous across countries. Changing international linkages tend to stabilize output in most countries, while leading to a higher risk of a global recession.

Keywords: International business cycles; trade linkages; volatilities; input-output (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2019-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-opm
Note: First version: July 2014. PRELIMINARY.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:hitcei:2018-16

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