 Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulationMathias Hoffmann and Iryna Stewen No 27, HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University Abstract: We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. Keywords: HOUSE PRICES; SAVINGS GLUT; GLOBAL IMBALANCES; CREDIT CONSTRAINTS; STATE BANKING DEREGULATION (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:remfce:27 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University Contact information at EDIRC. |
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