The Road to Recovery: Fiscal Stimulus, Financial Sector Rehabilitation, and Exit from Policy Easing

Zhiwei Zhang and Wenlang Zhang
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Zhiwei Zhang: Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Wenlang Zhang: Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

No 918, Working Papers from Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Abstract: The worst of the global financial crisis is probably behind us, but the trajectory to recovery may vary widely across economies. Employing a dynamic structural multi-country model with a financial accelerator, this paper studies the role of three important policy actions in economic recovery: fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation and exit from policy easing. The main finding is that while both fiscal stimulus and financial sector rehabilitation contribute to economic recovery, the former is likely to be less effective from a medium-term perspective and may generate some negative side effects. This finding suggests that policy priority (of advanced economies in particular) should be on continued financial sector rehabilitation. Moreover, international policy co-ordination is beneficial as it can generate spillovers to regional economies. We also study the effects of over-estimation of the post-crisis potential output by the monetary authorities in advanced economies in their policymaking. We find that this may affect economic recovery in the region through inflationary pressure and the consequent policy tightening.

Keywords: GIMF model; Financial accelerator; Fiscal stimulus; Financial rehabilitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G30 H50 H60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2009-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-fdg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0918

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