Presidents and the US Economy from 1949 to 2016

Timothy KaneÂ

No 17101, Economics Working Papers from Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Abstract: Does the US economy perform better when the president of the United States is a Democrat or a Republican? This paper explores the economic growth rate during different presidencies using data from 1949 to 2016, and confirms the Democratic-Republican gap while also showing the gap depends entirely on an unrealistic lag structure. The gap disappears and loses significance when lags of four, three, or even two quarters are considered, which is what history and political science recommend is appropriate given the lag between political actions and economic consequences. A superior method of overlapping presidential responsibility for transition periods is presented.

Keywords: U.S. Presidency; Economic Growth; Political Party (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 E23 E32 E65 N12 N42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17101

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