Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism

Sergiu Hart and Yosef Rinott

Discussion Paper Series from The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem

Abstract: The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state. This generalizes to notions of "optimism" about posterior probabilities.

Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2019-11
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Related works:
Working Paper: Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism (2022)
Journal Article: Posterior probabilities: Dominance and optimism (2020)
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