BMAS-Prognose "Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt"

Gerd Zika, Christian Schneemann, Anett Grossman, Michael Kalinowski, Tobias Maier, Anke Mönnig, Frederik Parton, Stefan Winnige and Marc Ingo Wolter
Additional contact information
Gerd Zika: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Christian Schneemann: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Anett Grossman: BIBB
Michael Kalinowski: BIBB
Tobias Maier: BIBB
Anke Mönnig: GWS
Frederik Parton: GWS
Stefan Winnige: GWS
Marc Ingo Wolter: GWS

No 201905, IAB-Forschungsbericht from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "The Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs is developing a new analytical instrument for forecasting the supply and demand of skilled labour in Germany (Fachkräftemonitoring). By continuously optimizing the model parameters insights into trends for the development of supply and demand will be achieved. The 'Fachkräftemonitoring' project is based on the BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections (QuBe project; www.qube-projekt.de), which have been operated and continuously developed since 2007 as part of a cooperation project between the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency (IAB) in cooperation with the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS). The forecast 'Digitale Arbeitswelt' is based on the 'Fachkräftemonitoring' project. The key findings are presented in this research report. The forecast of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs shows that the economic and occupational structural change will lead to the fact that in 2035 the working environment will differ from today's by more than 7 million jobs. There will be occupational shortages of skilled labour, although there is no evidence of nationwide shortage of labour. Shortages can be identified for occupational groups like 'medical health professionals', 'agriculture', 'plumbing, sanitation, heating, air conditioning', 'police, criminal service, court and prison services' and 'education, social work, curative care education'. On the other hand, there is a high level of competition for jobseekers in jobs with broad access for persons with non-occupational or non-vocational qualifications. This is the case, for example, in 'warehouse management', 'cleaning' and 'gastronomy'." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Auswirkungen; Bauinvestitionen; Berufsstruktur; Beschäftigungseffekte; Einkommenseffekte; Gewinn; Gütermarkt; Internet; Investitionsquote; Nachfrageentwicklung; Qualifikationsanforderungen; Qualifikationsstruktur; Digitale Arbeitswelt; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen; Szenario; Arbeitskräftenachfrage; technischer Wandel; Arbeitsmarktprognose; volkswirtschaftliche Kosten; Wertschöpfung; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Wirtschaftsstrukturwandel; 2006-2035 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 76 pages
Date: 2019-06-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger
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