Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model

Jonas E Arias, Guido Ascari, Nicola Branzoli and Efrem Castelnuovo
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Jonas E Arias: FRB Philadelphia

Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series from Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne

Abstract: This paper studies the challenge that increasing the inflation target poses to equilibrium determinacy in a medium-sized New Keynesian model without indexation fitted to the Great Moderation era. For moderate targets of the inflation rate, such as 2 or 4 percent, the probability of determinacy is near one conditional on the monetary policy rule of the estimated model. However, this probability drops significantly conditional on model-free estimates of the monetary policy rule based on real-time data. The difference is driven by the larger response of the federal funds rate to the output gap associated with the latter estimates.

Keywords: trend inflation; determinacy; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E3 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35pp
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model (2020)
Working Paper: Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model (2018)
Working Paper: Positive Trend In ation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model (2018)
Working Paper: POSITIVE TREND INFLATION AND DETERMINACY IN A MEDIUM-SIZED NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2018n09

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